China’s deadliest earthquake in decades could cut by up to 5 percent the country’s supply of carbon offsets under the Kyoto Protocol over the next 12 months, a market China dominates, Lehman analysts estimated on Thursday.

Rich countries can meet Kyoto greenhouse gas limits by investing in emissions cuts in developing countries, earning carbon offsets in return.

China is expected to supply about half of the annual 540 million tonnes of offsets called CERs (certified emissions reductions) developing countries are projected to sell through 2012 and worth more than 25 billion euros ($38.75 billion) on a secondary market.

Some 15 million tonnes of China’s annual output were within a 150 kilometer radius of Monday’s quake centered in the southwest Sichuan province, Lehman said.

“We counted seven impacted companies among the world’s top 20 project developers,” said Laurent Segalen, Lehman head of emissions trading, who listed EcoSecurities, Deutsche Bank, Endesa and Mitsubishi Corp among developers with nearby projects.

They included projects to cut greenhouse gas emissions from chemical plants or by replacing fossil fuels using wind and hydropower.

Stockholm-based project developer Tricorona said on Thursday that it had over 10 offset projects in Sichuan that it said may have been affected and corresponded to 8 million tonnes emission cuts through 2012.

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